Late at night on March 2 local time, an advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, and Iran would attack any vessels attempting to pass through the strait. Revolutionary Guard General Jabari stated clearly in a televised speech: "We will set fire to any vessel that tries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz." This declaration was a tough response to the military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a vital route for crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE. Approximately one-fifth of the world's total oil shipments pass through this strait. Now that this global energy "artery" has been cut off, thousands of ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf, and the global shipping industry is facing the most severe crisis in recent years.

 Thousands of ships are trapped, with a staggering scale of "frozen" shipping capacity

  According to Clarkson Research, approximately 3,200 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf region, accounting for 4% of the global fleet’s capacity. This includes: 112 crude oil tankers (of which over 70 are VLCCs, representing 8% of the global VLCC fleet’s capacity), 195 refined oil tankers (4%), 241 bulk carriers (1%), 114 container ships (1%), and 21 VLGCs (5%). Another approximately 500 ships are “waiting” outside the Gulf, mainly anchored at ports along the coasts of the UAE and Oman. Around 460 container ships (accounting for 7% of the global container fleet in terms of both the number of   ships and TEUs, with a total capacity of approximately 3.2 million TEUs) were originally scheduled to dock at Persian Gulf ports. However, their intended routes have been severely disrupted. As of March 3, the main container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf are distributed as follows: Mediterranean Shipping has 38 ships (128,000 TEUs), CMA CGM has 32 ships (105,000 TEUs), Maersk has 28 ships (92,000 TEUs), COSCO Shipping has 22 ships (75,000 TEUs), Hapag-Lloyd has 18 ships (62,000 TEUs), and Ocean Network Express has 12 ships (48,000 TEUs).

           Shipping companies take urgent action: suspension of services, detours, and price increases

     Faced with rapidly escalating geopolitical risks, major global liner companies have quickly activated emergency response mechanisms. Suspending bookings, detouring around the Cape of Good Hope, and imposing surcharges have become standard procedures. The scope of suspended bookings continues to expand. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) issued an emergency notice, suspending all new cargo bookings for destinations in the Middle East worldwide. Maersk announced that it would immediately suspend the acceptance of refrigerated, hazardous/special cargo shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. It also suspended all bookings between the Indian subcontinent and several Gulf countries. CMA CGM has suspended all booking services for multiple Middle Eastern countries, including key hub ports such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Hapag-Lloyd has likewise suspended bookings for refrigerated containers traveling between the Arabian Gulf and the Persian Gulf. ONE Maritime announced that it would cease accepting new bookings for routes to the Persian Gulf starting today. Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine Transport have also followed suit by suspending related bookings. In terms of route adjustments, Maersk confirmed that its ME11 and MECL routes will detour around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Red Sea area. CMA CGM has suspended all voyages through the Suez Canal, with affected ships taking a detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Hapag-Lloyd announced that it would suspend all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. COSCO Shipping said that ships already in the Persian Gulf will remain in safe waters or anchor after completing their scheduled port operations. Emergency surcharges have been implemented across the board. CMA CGM announced that it would impose an "Emergency Conflict Surcharge" (ECS) starting March 2nd. The rates are as follows: $2,000 per 20-foot container, $3,000 per 40-foot container, and $4,000 per refrigerated container or special equipment. Hapag-Lloyd has added a "War Risk Surcharge" (WRS), with a rate of $1,500 per TEU for standard containers and $3,500 per container for refrigerated and special containers. Freight forwarders told the media that there is currently a temporary shortage of shipping space. If high-value goods need to be shipped urgently, the cost per container could even exceed $4,000.

            The insurance market is rapidly withdrawing, and war insurance faces a "naked" crisis

In line with the shipping market, the insurance and reinsurance markets have also seen rapid contraction. A research report by Huatai Securities indicates that all 12 members of the International Shipowners' Mutual Insurance Association (IG) have issued notices canceling war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf region. The notices took effect at 00:00 GMT on March 2 (8:00 Beijing time), and after 72 hours (i.e., on March 5), existing war risk coverage will expire. This means that after 72 hours, ships in the region will be left without any insurance protection. Insurers and policyholders will need to renegotiate premiums, which are expected to increase significantly. According to the Financial Times, before the conflict, the war risk premium for a single voyage through the Persian Gulf was approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value. The market expects premiums to rise by 50% in the short term. For an oil tanker worth $100 million, the premium for a single voyage could reach $375,000 or even $500,000. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has raised the regional threat level to “CRITICAL”. In the past 24 hours, several merchant ships have been attacked by missiles or drones. AIS data shows a sharp decline in the average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. JMIC notes that even without an official legal blockade, the availability of insurance has become a “key factor” determining whether ships can pass through.

     The freight forwarding industry is in trouble: goods are stuck in transit, and shipping costs have skyrocketed

Forwarding companies on the front lines are bearing the direct impact of this storm. Staff from Hua Kai International Freight Forwarding in Huzhou, Zhejiang, told the media that several large containers they shipped before the New Year are still at sea. Originally, the freight for each container was just over $3,000, but now, in addition to the delay, they have to pay an additional $2,000 to $3,000 in war surcharges. The goods of Ningbo Jia Wei International Logistics Co., Ltd. were carried on the ship “MAHAN” and arrived at Bandar Abbas, Iran, on February 22. The ship was loaded with small household appliances such as air fryers and portable juicers from Cixi, Zhejiang, with a total value of $118,000. In the early hours of March 1, they received an urgent notice that the container terminal in Bandar Abbas had been hit by debris from an air raid and caught fire. In the end, the overseas customer, the domestic factory, and the freight forwarding company agreed to share the additional freight costs and planned to transfer the shipment to Bandar Hormozgan in Iran. The person in charge of the Middle East route at Zhejiang Gang Lian Jie Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. calculated that currently, maritime freight rates for the Middle East route have increased by 30% to 50%, while war insurance premiums have skyrocketed by 300% to 400%. The freight for a single container has increased by about $3,000. Wu Shengjun, the chairman of Yiwu Yue Da International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd., said that some shipping companies have extended the free period to 15 to 20 days, but most companies remain unclear about their stance. Faced with this “dilemma,” Ouyang Nengwei, the general manager of Ningbo Jia Wei International Logistics, admitted, “Currently, 90% of the shipments have been decided to be returned, and the costs can only be borne by the factories themselves.”

    The cargo owner's company is taking emergency measures, and industry experts recommend postponing shipments.

 Zheng Jingwen, deputy director of the International Shipping Research Institute at the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, suggested that at present, freight forwarders and foreign trade companies should maintain communication with overseas clients, suspend shipments to high-risk areas in the Middle East, and wait for the situation to clarify. If relevant goods are already in transit, it is important to keep close contact with consignees and shipping line companies to stay informed about ship routes and make arrangements for alternative transportation. Negotiations should also be conducted with consignees regarding the sharing of increased transportation costs and delivery methods. For Chinese companies that rely on the Middle East for transshipment trade, re-evaluating the timeliness of their logistics chains has become an urgent task. Many industry insiders agree that under the current circumstances, "avoiding risks is more important than seeking profits" is a common understanding among freight forwarders and clients. When the Strait of Hormuz resumes stability will directly affect global energy transportation routes, oil tanker freight rates, and the future evolution of the container shipping supply and demand structure. In the short term, risk premiums and capacity mismatches will dominate the shipping market.